Russian airplane disaster

[Grandad]

It is now being reported that IS are claiming that they shot down the Russian Airbus 321 en route from Sharm to St Petersburg with the loss of 224 lives. Hopefully they will recover the 'black boxes' that should give clues as to how this aircraft appears to have fallen from its 30,000 feet flight path. I am always suspicious that organisations like IS will seize any opportunity and claim responsibility for such tragedies, not least because Russia has joined the fight against IS. But of course Russia is also targeting the other anti Assad organisations as well.

[LovelyLadyLux]

Another very sad and tragic day re: airplane disasters. I truly hope IS was not the cause and I also truly hope that Vladimir Putin wipes them out and off the face of the earth.

I honestly never thought I'd say this but - Putin IS stepping up to the plate and taking a shot at stopping this group. I wish our leaders in Canada were as considerate of us Canadians - our newly elected Prime Minister just agreed to allow in 25,000 refugees

I'd heard and read earlier that there was some hope some of the passengers "might" be alive but the reports I see now indicate all 224 are dead.

Truly sorry for this loss. Tragic. Tragic. Tragic.

[Grandad]

Only repeating what has been said on the news but Russian Air Investigators are saying that the aircraft broke up in mid air. Not sure how they can say that....YET, but if that is the case there would seem to be two possible causes.
1) That the aircraft was hit by a missile. I do not believe that IS have air to air capability so that would leave the ground to air possibility. Whether or not they have missiles with a range up to over 30,000 feet remains to be seen but i think it unlikely. That leaves the second possibility.
2) Probably the most traumatic failure of an aircrafts airframe is the catostophic rupture of the wing spar. I suppose that has happened but I cannot remember an occasion when that was deemed to be the cause of an aircraft crash. the aircraft would certainly break up in mid air because a wing or wings would become separated from the fuselage.

Aircraft servicing includes regular inspection and testing of the wing spar for stress cracks that can be found with dyes and (I believe) UV light.

Hopefully the black boxes that have been recovered will throw some light on the cause and the last moments of that flight. If it is IS then it will be another example of how political intervention in someone elses war can impact on the death innocent civilians.

[LovelyLadyLux]

Interestingly WE are not hearing much about this at all as in NOTHING. I have yet to hear about this here on a talking heads morning news show although it is on the Internet news as I've attached below.

I'm also doubtful that IS have air to air capabilities but it could have been a lucky shot ground to air.

IF it is determined to be terrorism it will be another major blow to the tourism industry and I think it will ramp up Putin to retaliate on an even larger scale than he is now.

Hindsight is always 20/20 but it seems we're getting larger mass movements of people than since the World Wars. Definitely everything is changing and changing FAST with the loss of lots of civilian human life.

This is what is being reported here:

A Russian airliner that crashed in Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, killing all 224 people aboard, broke apart in the air, a Russian official said Sunday.

Victor Sorochenko, executive director of Russia’s Interstate Aviation Commission, told Russia's RT news that it remained too soon to determine what caused Saturday's crash of the Metrojet flight with 217 passengers and a crew of seven.

"The destruction happened in the air and the fragments scattered over a large area,” Sorochenko said.

The plane was en route from Sharm El-Sheikh in Egypt to St. Petersburg when it dropped off radar screens 23 minutes into the flight. The Russian Transport Minister has dismissed as unreliable a claim of responsibility from an Islamic State group, Interfax News reports.

Mohamed Samir, Egypt's army spokesman, also disputed the claim.

"There is no proof at this point that terrorists were responsible for this plane crash," Samir said, according to The Guardian. "We will know the true reasons when the Civil Aviation Authority in coordination with Russian authorities completes its investigation. But the army sees no authenticity to the claims."

An Egyptian aviation official says the pilot of the Airbus A321 had reported technical difficulties before losing contact with air traffic controllers. Ayman al-Muqadem, a member of the Aviation Incidents Committee, said the pilot had reported his intention to attempt to land at the nearest airport.

The Vatican issued a statement Sunday saying Pope Francis was praying "for all who have died and for all who mourn their loss."

The German transportation ministry issued a "comprehensive warning" for airlines not to fly over parts of the Sinai Peninsula. Lufthansa, Emirates and Air France were among major airlines announcing they would stop flying over the Sinai until the cause of the crash was determined.

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a statement expressing his condolences to the families of the victims and declared Sunday a day of mourning. A team of Russian investigators was sent immediately to Egypt, according to Russia's Emergencies Ministry, the Russian state-run news agency RIA reports.

Russia's air safety agency ordered MetroJet to suspend all flights until at least Monday, the Associated Press reported. AP added, however, that Metrojet said it will check its six remaining A321s one by one and continue operating them if they pass inspections.

Flight Radar 24, a flight tracking service, said the plane was descending at 6,000 feet per minute when it went off radar. Scores of bodies and two black boxes with the plane's flight data were found at the crash site, according to RIA.

The Russian news outlet Life-News published and tweeted the first photos from the site, showing smoking wreckage spread out on desolate terrain.

The crash is believed to be the deadliest in the history of Russian aviation, surpassing a 1985 disaster in Uzbekistan in which 200 people died, the Russian-run news agency RIA says.

Contributing: The Associated Press

[Robbo70]

I havn't posted enough here to use a link but todays Daily Fail is suggesting Brits don't go to Egypt through the winter and find alternatives. Its on the home page of the online news.

Tourist hot spot that's a soft target: JOHN R. BRADLEY on why Britons may consider cancelling their holidays in wake of Russian passenger plane crashing over Egypt
Russian passenger jet crashed in Sinai, Egypt, 23 minutes after take-off
All 224 passengers and crew on board Airbus A321 killed in air disaster
ISIS claims responsibility for doomed jet but authorities not yet confirmed

A passenger jet plummets from the sky, killing all 224 on board. Islamic State gloats that it is to blame.

No wonder thousands of Britons planning winter holidays in the hugely popular tourist destination of Sharm El Sheikh – with its famed five-star hotels and year-round sun – are pondering whether they should cancel their plans.

Though a number of British and European airlines are taking unprecedented steps to avoid flying over the Sinai Peninsula where Sharm is located, there have been strenuous denials from both the Russian and Egyptian authorities that the plane was brought down deliberately.

It seems those airlines are worried this may yet prove to have been a terrorist attack – the opening salvo, perhaps, of the swift revenge promised by IS for Russia’s month-long bombing campaign in Syria in support of their enemy President Bashar al-Assad.

Notwithstanding Russia’s infamous record for poor aviation safety, with an accident rate more than three times the average, almost all experts have discounted the possibility of a technical fault causing such a devastating mid-air disintegration while the plane was on autopilot and so soon after take-off.

And, contrary to initial reports, there was no SOS distress signal sent from the cockpit and the plane had not diverted towards the Egyptian capital Cairo to make an emergency landing.

A cynic would argue that the Egyptian government, the only Arab regime to back Russia’s campaign in Syria, will do whatever it takes to protect a tourism industry already decimated by fears of terrorist attacks. And that includes putting out deliberately confusing and contradictory information, until media interest dies down and an investigation is allowed to drag on for months.

There is no denying, though, that it would be an extraordinary coincidence for a Russian plane inexplicably to fall from the sky over Sinai.

This area, just a few hours’ drive from the Sharm resort and bordering the Gaza Strip, has for years been the centre of a little-reported but ferocious Islamist insurgency against the Egyptian regime, led by heavily armed local terrorists who have pledged allegiance to IS.

This, presumably, is why the UK Department for Transport issued its warning to British pilots about the dangers of flying low over the region.

Following an unprecedented assault by Egyptian soldiers on terrorist strongholds earlier this year, most of the IS fighters fled with their weapons to the nearby hills – exactly where the Russian plane disintegrated. While they cannot be certain, terrorism experts doubt that these fighters somehow acquired more advanced surface-to-air missiles than those bought from Libya, which do not have the range needed to down an aircraft flying at well above 20,000ft.

Yesterday, a video purporting to show the plane being blown from the sky was dismissed as fake even by the Sinai-based IS group which took credit for the attack.

That, though, leaves another – just as terrifying – possibility: that a jihadist sympathiser managed to sneak a bomb on to the plane at Sharm El Sheikh. Tellingly, when IS’s media channel claimed responsibility, it did not specify how the attack was carried out.

The Egyptian government has poured massive resources into securing its vital tourism sector. But the country is one of the most corrupt in the world and is still reeling from the chaos brought about by the 2011 uprising against former president Hosni Mubarak.

Just how chaotic things are, and how potentially dangerous, was illustrated earlier this year when Egyptian aircraft pursuing terrorists mistakenly attacked vehicles carrying tourists, killing eight Mexicans and four local guides. This should prove food for thought for British tourists planning to visit any time soon.

It is a grim fact that planes taking off and landing at Sharm El Sheikh are within striking range of the missiles we know the IS terrorists in this benighted corner of Egypt have in abundance.

Sadly, having failed in their attempt to defeat the Egyptian military in their Sinai stronghold, it is now only a matter of time before they fix their attention, once again, on the soft targets of the nearby tourist resorts.

[Grandad]

Interesting analysis Robbo. There is already so much speculation and false claims that in my opinion it will only be possible to start a meaningful investigation when the contents of the flight and cockpit voice recorders are decoded. At least this should squash the claim that the crew had put out an SOS and were diverting to another airport.
Also the recorders should contain some indication if there was an explosion on board. Whatever the outcome I would hope that honest reports are eventually released and not covered up for any political reasons.
On BBC TV this morning the travel journalist Simon Calder was making a strong personal case for people to continue to take their holidays in Sharm. I doubt that peoples opinion will be swayed by his comments, mine certainly would not. I am already finding interesting and welcoming alternatives to Egypt, a country that I grew to have great affection for over 20 years but now the stakes are too high.

[LovelyLadyLux]

@Robbo - thanks for the interesting article. We're not getting that much in-depth about it here.

On another note - Our TV morning News here IS saying there is "no way a technical glitch" caused the crash and are basing this statement on "Top US Intelligence" and Russian investigators are apparently claiming an 'external influence'

Nobody is saying anything specific partly because there is nothing much specific to say. Only generalities are being talked about.

IMO it IS possible that it could have been a surface to air shot but if it was a bomb it is more likely this was smuggled on.

I'm surprised that ISIS/ISIL hasn't been more aggressive in targeting tourist areas. Seems they do go for the 'big bang' that gets them the most publicity and definitely shooting up a tourist area would accomplish this. IMO it is only a matter of time 'til this happens

I sometimes think of returning for 'one last' visit but I guess I'm just not tempted enough given all that is going on in the area.

[Robbo70]

LLL there are more indepth stories available in the UK papers, but that one jumped out at me as its suggesting it will cause people to re think their holidays, which is going to be very bad for tourism. As you know, I tend to only visit Luxor, so Omar can spend time with his family. The last 2 visits I didn't even visit a tomb or temple, which is very unusual for me. I stayed in the relative safety of the hotel and caught up on a few books and did very little. I arrived 2 days before the Karnak bombing, and for me that made me realise that at any point, the weirdy beardies could turn on tourists all over Egypt and really make the headlines.

I doubt whether any security force in the world could do any more than Egypt is doing, but as we learned in the UK, with London, Manchester and even Warrington, and in the USA in Boston, if someone is determined to cause death and destruction they will find a way.

For easy reading, read the Daily Mail on line, for more in depth, try the telegraph or the Guardian

[Grandad]

For easy reading, read the Daily Mail on line, for more in depth, try the telegraph or the Guardian

Covering all options then Robbo

[LovelyLadyLux]

Thank Robbo for the newspaper suggestions.

I think Canada isn't bothering with this matter too much is, in part, cause very few Canadians are actually going to Egypt. It is a super long flight for me as I'm on the west coast of Canada so I'm something like 13 hours to the UK (preferred as usually I'm flying BA) or France or Holland, wait for connections and then to Cairo + connection time and then down to Luxor. I've actually spent more holiday time in Cairo than Luxor.

The Americans have said on their TV News programs that they're in it ONLY to acquire the intelligence to know what actually happened. Putting it bluntly - they (Americans) don't seem too upset that Russians are dead BUT they DO want to know how it happened so they can protect their own interests.

My gf was there visiting and holidaying in Luxor when the Arab Spring erupted and it was awful for her and us - I was trying to reach her daughter who was trying to reach me as neither of us could reach her so we worried together. She was safe but it was a long couple of weeks when she couldn't really go outside (or didn't feel safe enough to go outside). She has gone back since as going to Luxor is a cheap and easy holiday for her and over the years she had gone often enough to have developed a friendship network there.

IMO it is only a matter of time until one of the Militant/Terrorist groups decides to make a name for themselves by popping off tourists in Luxor. It would be a BIG score to cripple Egypt. We've seen it happen in other countries where there have been assaults on tourists in hotels.

I just want it to stop. It seems crazy. It IS crazy and it is turning us all against each other in ways I don't like to even think about.

[LovelyLadyLux]

Have the US News on as I'm heading south tomorrow AND the BIG NEWS seems that they're now figuring a BOMB was somehow smuggled on board. Seems, from what is being said now, this 'hint' it was a bomb has come from your David Cameron. The American are saying that Cameron was not unreasonable in saying this.......

Apparently the US has suspended all flights that originate from Sharm El Sheik whilst saying that they are aware there are NO direct flights into the USA from there but they're banning the movement of anything or anybody that might have originated from there. The USA is also now putting out alerts that no US citizens should be travelling to Egypt and particularly the Sinai area.

Am pretty sure that Russia and Egypt do NOT want this accident to be the result of a Bomb

[Robbo70]

yes I just saw the breaking news. probably a bit naughty of Dave to make that suggestion until the official enquiries are completed, but many reports seem to be leaning that way. I wouldn't be surprised if Russia now put feet on the ground and go for gold. I read last week the Chechneyan army are more than willing to go and have a good fight. They are predominantly muslim apparently and would relish finishing off a group doing so much damage to their religion, or rather the perception of it.

[LovelyLadyLux]

I quite agree that Russia could now go for the gold! I don't think Vlad would/will hesitate for a second and - honestly - I really do wish somebody would wipe these barbaric terrorist creeps off the face of the earth FAST and PERMANENTLY.

I didn't catch it fully but apparently there was some strategy behind Cameron's announcement or blatant HINT now re:bomb given that SISI is there tomorrow meeting with him.

This is all suddenly big time American news.

Us Canadians are today swearing in our New Prime Ministers cabinet (BORING) so whatever is happening in the rest of the world is of no import 'til we get our boring ceremonies over with

[Grandad]

There would seem to be three possible causes of this tragedy.

1) Structural failure of the aircraft. This aircraft had a heavy tail down landing at cairo three years ago and although inspection cleared it of any structural damage, who knows, there may have been some minor cracking which then became stress points eventually failing. At the time it was reported that the tail of the aircraft fell separately from the rest of the airframe.

2) Ground to air missile fired by IS. Flying at in excess of 30,000 feet IS do not have weaponry that will reach that height. What they have got is capable of only about 12,000 feet.

3) Some kind of explosive device either brought on to the plane by a passenger or, more likely, loaded on to the aircraft by ground staff sympathetic to IS. IS have again today claimed responsibility and have said they will tell 'how' in due course. I don't think they would say that if they were not responsible.

In my opinion #3 is the most likely and I think Cameron is right to send security experts to Sharm to evaluate the security systems there. As for the last few days flights to Sharm have been operating as normal it would seem to be too little too late, as usual.

[Horus]

The latest is that the British Government has stopped all flights to Sharm as they consider that the plane was probably blown up with a bomb. This should put the final nail into Egypts hopes of a tourist revival.

[Grandad]

I am inclined to assume that they must have some new evidence or inteligence to support this extreme action.

Who is decoding the 'black boxes'? Has something shown on them to support this action? If it was a bomb, the flight deck would have had time to make some statement.

There are 20,000 Brits in Sharm and the other resorts. True that they are not all at Sharm airport, some will have only arrived in the last day or so, but there will be an urgency to get flights going again because the number actually due to return home will increase as each day passes.

[Horus]

Thomsons have stopped or are stopping their flights

[LovelyLadyLux]

Watching American TV News seems they're inclined to agree it was a bomb and theorize that ISIS IS in Egypt and probably did facilitate getting a bomb on the plane.

It does seem IF you were staff working on or around the airline it would be super easy to slip a bomb in a bag & onto a plane.

If it does become definitively proven that it was a bomb the fat lady will be taking a bow and walking off the stage as far as Egypt is concerned.

I feel really bad for all the people (Expats and tourists) who are presently IN any of the tourist areas. Talk about experiencing HIGH BP when it is time to get back on the plane to leave IF there is going to be any planes available to take you out.

IF I owned the plane I might send it but it would have to have sufficient fuel to go and return with NOBODY on the ground touching it (other than MY OWN CREW) and I'd allow ONLY people on board. I'd probably make you go through a strip search and you would NOT be allowed to bring anything with you. No baggage, no food - nada.

[Horus]

Lets be honest security at Egyptian airports is a joke, they are more interested in what they can extract in baksheesh than in real security, they would not even come close to what happens behind the scenes at UK airports and baggage checks. As for expats, well they have had plenty of time to make alternative arrangements the writing has been on the wall for ages now. Those who own property there are in the worst position, once the tourists are completely gone then the “Weirdy Beardies” will start looking at who is left and of course should they become powerful in localised areas of the country (as is happening in other Middle East states) then I would not want to be given a staring roll in one of their videos.

[Horus]

The latest is that Thomsons will start returning holidaymakers from Sharm tomorrow, BUT only on specially security checked flights, so what is that telling you about the situation at Egyptian airports?

In addition the inspection team have said that the security at Sharm is unacceptible